The passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari has not only stirred national mourning but also reignited political calculations ahead of the 2027 general elections. As tributes poured in, accusations of political exploitation surfaced, exposing the relationship between Buhari and his successor, President Bola Tinubu, and the jostling by various parties to claim the late leader’s support base, ISMAEEL UTHMAN writes
The All Progressives Congress has wasted no time in adopting President Bola Tinubu for a second term bid two years ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
The APC is leveraging the power of incumbency and the advantage of being the ruling party with controls of 23 governors and 70 (of 109) senators and 220 (of 360) House Representatives members after defections of opposition figures.
However, the opposition space is far from settled. Sunday PUNCH notes that the African Democratic Congress has positioned itself as a possible umbrella for disgruntled leaders and members of the Peoples Democratic Party, Labour Party, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party. The PDP, which was initially expected to play a major opposition role, is engulfed in a deep internal crisis that is threatening its existence.
But within this fluid political terrain, five names keep recurring in discussions on who might emerge as presidential candidates of the opposition.
Atiku Abubakar
Atiku is a strong political leader who commands millions of votes every election. The Adamawa-born politician has been in the presidential race since 1993, running six times — 1993, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023.
But fortune has not smiled on his ambition, just as he has also refused to give up. Having resigned from the PDP after the birth of the ADC-led coalition, Atiku has declared his ambition under the new movement.
In the 2023 election, Atiku polled over 6,984,520 votes, winning 12 states. His political spread in the North remains his biggest asset, alongside his financial war chest and national recognition.
But Atiku faces the twin challenges of voter fatigue and perceptions of political opportunism. Critics argue that after six attempts, he represents the old order and should take a back seat in politics. Born on November 25, 1946, Atiku will be 80 years old (turning 81 in November) in 2027. However, some other political pundits believe he deserves a last chance at the presidential shot. According to analysts, Atiku must secure a running mate from the South with wide youth appeal to boost his chances. They argue that without a strong alliance with Obi or Kwankwaso, Atiku risks splitting the opposition vote and gifting Tinubu victory.
Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, Atiku’s Media Aide, Paul Ibe, described the ex-VP as a most suitable figure to use against Tinubu.
He said, “Atiku is not a religious or ethnic bigot. He is not given to religion or tribe, unlike Tinubu, who has used the opportunity of his presidency to advance the interests of his family and tribe. Nigeria does not need a bigot because we have been divided along all kinds of lines. We need a leader who will serve the interests of Nigerians irrespective of where they come from. That is a major strength of Atiku Abubakar. He is an inclusive person, and inclusiveness is a tool for national unity and stability.”
Peter Obi
The former Anambra State governor is considered by some analysts to be the most popular opposition figure among the youth and professionals. His 2023 presidential outing, where he won the Federal Capital Territory and 11 states, cemented his image as a serious contender. He polled 6,101,533 votes, which equated to 25.40% of the valid votes cast in the election.
Obi is one of the leaders of the ADC-led coalition and has also indicated interest in contesting the 2027 election with a promise of serving only one term.
According to analysts, if Obi emerges as a consensus candidate with support from Kwankwaso or Atiku, his chances of toppling Tinubu would rise significantly.
Obidient Movement, the grassroots political and social movement for the ex-governor, has maintained its energy and mobilisations for him. The group remains vocal, framing Obi as the face of accountability and prudent governance.
However, analysts say Obi’s weakness lies in his limited penetration in the North and the platform he may choose to contest his election in 2027. Despite his one-term promise, Sunday PUNCH gathered that Obi was still struggling to convince the northern elite to support his ambition.
But there are indications that the PDP is considering getting Obi to fly the party’s ticket, especially with the party’s decision to have its candidate from the South. This came amid the crisis rocking Obi’s Labour Party. Though vibrant online, the LP has continued to struggle with grassroots mobilisation, as many of its national lawmakers have defected to the APC.
The National Secretary of Coalition of United Political Parties, Peter Ameh, who is an Obi’s loyalist, said the former governor was a disciplined man committed to the development of the country.
He said, “Peter Obi is a very good manager of public resources. He knows how to turn money into more wealth. His accountability, compassion, and solidarity with the common man are uncommon among the political class. His business acumen, transparency, reputation and integrity are the centre points of his existence. He can never play about. And look at the president.
“He has consistently and continuously lamented that our government expenditure is not directed to target the welfare of the people, to impact the life of the people positively and directly. Obi’s stance is that we must have some level of fiscal responsibility, where we spend money that will improve life expectancy and the living standard of the people.
“Obi has the capacity to put resources in a way that will change the lives of the people. He is a disciplined man committed to making sure that Nigeria works. For him, it’s not about self; it is about the commitment to others.”
Goodluck Jonathan
It is no longer news that former President Goodluck Jonathan is being courted as a consensus southern figure who could bridge the gap between warring opposition camps. Both the PDP and ADC are working towards having Jonathan on the ballot as their candidate. Jonathan was defeated as a sitting President by the then opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, in 2015.
According to analysts, Jonathan’s candidature may cement victory for the opposition as the North will support him because he has only a term to serve.
One of the people pushing for Jonathan’s candidature states that the ex-President’s statesmanlike profile, international reputation, and ability to calm southern divisions make him a suitable figure to contest against Tinubu.
“He is the best of all the opposition leaders today. He is experienced and has demonstrated commitment to the unity and peace of the country by conceding defeat to Buhari in 2015. Of other aspirants, Jonathan has only a term to serve. That is a sure bargain for the North. If he agrees to contest, we can persuade Atiku to nominate a vice presidential candidate. With that, victory is sure for the ADC,” the supporter who spoke with Sunday PUNCH on condition of anonymity, said.
But Jonathan’s path is clouded by constitutional questions over his eligibility, since he already served out Umaru Yar’Adua’s tenure before winning in 2011. Legal experts remain divided on whether he can still contest another presidential election.
Rabiu Kwankwaso
The former Kano State governor remains a force to reckon with in the North.
His Kwankwasiyya movement enjoys cult-like loyalty. Kwankwaso secured 997,279 votes in Kano out of the 1,496,687 votes he received in the 2023 presidential election.
Analysts argue that whoever controls Kano controls a significant portion of the presidential vote.
President Tinubu, who polled 517,341 votes in Kano in 2023, has been courting Kwankwaso amid other political moves to secure a majority of the state’s votes in 2027.
The spokesperson for the NNPP, Ladipo Johnson, described Kwankwaso as a rooted politician.
According to him, Kwankwaso’s firm control of Kano votes projects him as the strongest among other aspirants.
He said, “The former Kano governor is bringing the votes of equivalent of three states. Even Tinubu lost Lagos in 2023, but Kwankwaso has firm control of Kano votes. He is well-rooted and loved by his people, and his political structure cuts across.
“Besides, he is a vast, experienced man. He has been in both the executive and legislative arms. He was a senator, deputy speaker of the House of Reps, a member of the Constituent Assembly, and, of course, a two-term governor. He also has international experience — he was the special envoy of former President Olusegun Obasanjo to Darfur and Somalia, and former minister of defence. So, he has wide-ranging experience. These are the things that he brings to the table, with electoral value.”
However, critics state that Kwankwaso’s drawback is his limited spread outside the North-West and his frosty relationship with other opposition figures, which makes coalition-building difficult.
He is, however, keeping his options open, hinting at possible negotiations with other blocs. They argue that Kwankwaso’s chances may be slim as a presidential candidate, but as a vice-presidential pick or northern field marshal in a broad alliance, his ability to mobilise millions of votes could decide the election.
Omoyele Sowore
Sowore, founder of Sahara Reporters and candidate of the African Action Congress in 2023, is a vocal and radical voice of opposition who has been in and out of police custody and court because of his political activism. Sowore contested in the 2019 presidential election, polling 33,953 votes, and 14,608 votes in 2023.
His campaigns are rooted in anti-establishment rhetoric, human rights advocacy, and youth activism. Sowore’s support base is the activist community and a few other individuals who see him as uncompromising.
But his ambition’s problem remains structure. His party lacks presence in most states, and he has not joined the ADC-led coalition talks. This isolation limits his reach beyond the activist community.
However, Sowore’s staunch loyalist, Deji Adeyanju, described the activist as the most sound among the aspirants.
“Ideologically, Sowore is the most sound. In terms of restarting Nigeria and pushing the reset button so that bad behaviour begins to have consequences, Sowore is the only one who can do it. The political will is what is missing in Nigeria, and that is what Sowore has. He is a person who can jail his friend for behaviour.
“We need a society where we can do 100 per cent clean up, and only he can do that. But Nigerians don’t like revolutionists; they prefer political thieves, and that is why we are where we are. We will continue to push for a better Nigeria,” he said.
